AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI accuse Microsoft of violating antitrust before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa89495963b9ce899e7aef10d89272f9f3987d0192dcf23f187726b78b023663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 972.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 15c | 297.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…f2c9backed Yes | 18c | 202$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…a1d3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.