Olympics · resolved market
Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa8f84430dcc49b5a8b463672c370aab71885a7d680da773a50018b652a4d0c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 59c | 4,176$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…58f5backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 45c | 3,048$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.9 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 46c | 1,383$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.1 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked Yes | 54c | 816.86$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 54c | 645.66$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 49c | 409.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 55c | 321.42$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 45c | 253.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…0fc7backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…9a37backed No | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 50c | 127.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked No | 48c | 125.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 11c | 115.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…abe0backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Yes | 52c | 88.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…e8f2backed No | 50c | 80.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…daf0backed Yes | 54c | 56.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…c772backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…3203backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 35c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x360d…a353backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…fbebbacked Yes | 54c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b4…15fdbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle?this page
- Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle?No won
- Will David Popovici (ROM) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle?No won
- Will Kyle Chalmers (AUS) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.