Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa94a74503fbbff196581b64f770cde37c242ca52305f2c015b33f1e1e052194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed Yes | 22c | 2,320$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 78c | 639.98$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed No | 72c | 118.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 28c | 112.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 78c | 56.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 59c | 35.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…e371backed No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…e3d4backed No | 65c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "E85 - Don Toliver" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.