Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa10d7304032b61d86e9317a893b67db853a3f84e8fbf75a6b431a8fc3914ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Under | 54c | 8,740$4,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.07 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Over | 41c | 7,980$3,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,256.47 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Over | 46c | 1,952$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.14 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Under | 63c | 1,479$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.54 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Under | 69c | 1,356$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.36 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Over | 50c | 1,106$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.11 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Over | 58c | 590.45$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.46 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Over | 60c | 489.88$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.73 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 471.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.57 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…f441backed Over | 60c | 276.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Under | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Under | 57c | 220.61$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Over | 60c | 203.78$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 30c | 180.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…706bbacked Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Over | 59c | 112.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 58c | 96.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Over | 45c | 96.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Over | 35c | 78.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Over | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Under | 66c | 54.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Over | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5)BetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Series: BetBoom Team Kill Handicap (-25.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.