Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c2372971766c315d777a9aa57a3cba272b6c4547f48b066afe4b8d9ca43c1ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof BetBoom Team, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6218…f388backed BetBoom Team | 32c | 12,554$4,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,006.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed BetBoom Team | 2c | 5,700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 61c | 4,738$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.72 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Aurora | 76c | 4,390$3,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.89 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 44c | 4,085$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.19 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Aurora | 54c | 3,873$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 62c | 1,859$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.54 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked BetBoom Team | 59c | 1,696$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Aurora | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 24c | 1,146$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.2 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed BetBoom Team | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked BetBoom Team | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d8…e0e6backed Aurora | 27c | 620.43$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Aurora | 41c | 579.25$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.76 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked BetBoom Team | 71c | 565.85$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Aurora | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora | 71c | 489.53$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.17 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Aurora | 79c | 417.48$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…0f52backed Aurora | 49c | 205.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 30c | 199.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked BetBoom Team | 70c | 188$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed BetBoom Team | 76c | 184.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Aurora | 24c | 154.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…4152backed BetBoom Team | 14c | 135.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked BetBoom Team | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed BetBoom Team | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Aurora | 49c | 99.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Aurora | 24c | 86.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed BetBoom Team | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked BetBoom Team | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…6b1abacked Aurora | 77c | 57.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Aurora | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 62c | 43.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked BetBoom Team | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…acadbacked BetBoom Team | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Aurora | 48c | 23.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…065cbacked Aurora | 78c | 21.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked BetBoom Team | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5)BetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Series: BetBoom Team Kill Handicap (-25.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.