Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99eccdb2718200784df20ded279dc8b7907dcfbc74b4ebb686a274d45fceb87b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 32c | 16,365$5,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,219.61 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed BetBoom Team | 69c | 5,908$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.73 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed Aurora | 2c | 5,700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…9562backed BetBoom Team | 74c | 2,571$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.66 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked BetBoom Team | 67c | 2,131$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team | 68c | 1,837$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.38 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed BetBoom Team | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.3 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed BetBoom Team | 69c | 1,066$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.54 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…5af6backed Aurora | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed BetBoom Team | 70c | 530$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed BetBoom Team | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 28c | 443.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Aurora | 29c | 421.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed BetBoom Team | 70c | 338.18$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Aurora | 7c | 314.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked BetBoom Team | 72c | 224.6$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Aurora | 36c | 224.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked BetBoom Team | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Aurora | 32c | 175.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked BetBoom Team | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Aurora | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 15c | 132.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Aurora | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…9194backed Aurora | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…9c9fbacked Aurora | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Aurora | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora | 39c | 49.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…fe52backed Aurora | 32c | 46.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked BetBoom Team | 67c | 41.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed BetBoom Team | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…acadbacked BetBoom Team | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked BetBoom Team | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5)BetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Series: BetBoom Team Kill Handicap (-25.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.