Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa76426d5a1ce77daebdebe874a44d861c8a2e5943ac060951483a5dffb8791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 54c | 315.64$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.65 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 213.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…3f39backed No | 65c | 195.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 41c | 133.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 46c | 123.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 115.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 12c | 114.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 36c | 109.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 44c | 101.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 64c | 97.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 25c | 88.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 63c | 87.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 36c | 86.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 69.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…b414backed Yes | 30c | 69.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed No | 60c | 68.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 67.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 67c | 66.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 32c | 61.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 59c | 53.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 56c | 52.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 32c | 46.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 58c | 43.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…320abacked Yes | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 40.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 80c | 37.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 35.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 33.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 33.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…ba9ebacked Yes | 36c | 28.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked Yes | 41c | 28.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +74%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…ca6dbacked Yes | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 54c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.