MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac12e55243f0ba50409ee80d323a86155ae3bebb23ee6094d65820ba407e098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Baltimore Orioles, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 74c | 3,148$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 2,675$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 1,019$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.74 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletics | 62c | 929.36$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.16 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 434.05$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 13c | 346.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 290.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Athletics | 63c | 199$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Athletics | 63c | 175.78$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Athletics | 64c | 171.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics | 62c | 115.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Athletics | 77c | 75.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Athletics | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Athletics | 62c | 59.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 55.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Athletics | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Athletics | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Athletics | 63c | 23.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Athletics | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Athletics (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.