TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Over50c28,300$14,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,147.5255053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under50c10,911$5,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,489.6392054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Under50c10,760$5,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3807550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under49c7,713$3,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,929.6811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under47c7,488$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,947.428,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over52c6,776$3,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,490.7110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under38c3,808$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.86,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under47c2,987$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.312,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over66c1,921$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.458,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over53c1,740$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.21,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cb…afe6backed Under49c1,685$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under50c1,683$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.882,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Under50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7509262%57 W · 35 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under49c1,352$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.1319248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Over62c1,199$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.133864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x230a…9857backed Under50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Under49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5616855.9%38 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over53c1,094$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.548,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50012640.5%51 W · 75 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004557.8%26 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c61…fce1backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under50c992$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.969,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39286653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over18c738.48$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.951,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c726.62$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under59c677.97$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9719153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c664.28$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.781,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under49c499.98$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.9970744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c491.45$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.555,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Over52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20822848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Over51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006360.3%38 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20094034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over51c379.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.951,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under49c360$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.091,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Over51c343.57$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2218551.4%95 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under45c333.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2739948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over51c314.53$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.411,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Over49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over51c294.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15047545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over51c280$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.845246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under50c251.27$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6428154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Under49c230$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.313452.2%70 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Under49c209.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.122849.1%112 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under49c200.47$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.241,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Under48c164.15$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1510757.9%62 W · 45 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under51c163.89$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3173748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc93…b91dbacked Under61c162.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.33174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.8wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Under52c142.23$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2719752.3%103 W · 94 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over56c139$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.74,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over52c125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6548150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Under60c124.29$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.781,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under48c120.94$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8961352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under51c115.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0533032.7%108 W · 222 L-22.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under49c110$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.11,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Under57c104.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.095040%20 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under74c103$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.781,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5178454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5760…40aabacked Over51c95.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55337.7%20 W · 33 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c87.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under56c86.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.241,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4021353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under48c77.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9382551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef6…9b93backed Over51c72.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.056741.8%28 W · 39 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Under49c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.716553.3%88 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over52c67.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3548651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over51c66.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7852449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over50c66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.945,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under51c59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9172247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020446.6%95 W · 109 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Under54c56.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1320764.7%134 W · 73 L+21.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under50c56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3e…11c0backed Over43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.659641.7%40 W · 56 L-8.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2b…0dd7backed Under74c54.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.24560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under59c53.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.111,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under55c52.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8412352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2582741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under48c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526351.3%135 W · 128 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527452.6%144 W · 130 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under49c40.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.722,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205062%31 W · 19 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed Under51c39.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.283234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f82…91e5backed Under50c38.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Under53c38.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2117460.3%105 W · 69 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Over51c35.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.117643.4%33 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under40c34.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.691,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under49c33.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8667453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under42c32.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.066,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under50c32.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.322849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d1…3da3backed Over45c31.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d94…5beabacked Over45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c9e…8e90backed Under50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1514146.1%65 W · 76 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8858…ed3ebacked Under53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.313641.9%57 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Over44c26.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7320852.9%110 W · 98 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.