Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaccd26d03f792026c6bc40654e682ab6aeb89cb1e9051dfd5874860e4371afd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof Kalmychata, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed VP.Prodigy | 46c | 1,174$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.29 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…b365backed Kalmychata | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked VP.Prodigy | 49c | 629.24$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.63 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Kalmychata | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 359.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.49 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Kalmychata | 59c | 296.36$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed VP.Prodigy | 27c | 231$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.63 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked Kalmychata | 57c | 177.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 150.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…3dcebacked Kalmychata | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 79.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked VP.Prodigy | 45c | 75.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…a74ebacked Kalmychata | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…0bd2backed Kalmychata | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed VP.Prodigy | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Kalmychata | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.