Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaacdeefcc141b61a922ff409d3d065b0e397939d8b07c94bbb3aee5b696e2c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 511.64$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 32c | 470.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 22c | 451$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 64c | 379.8$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 30c | 328.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.02 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 323.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 304.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…89cebacked No | 4c | 282.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 22c | 279.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 69c | 270.28$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 14c | 265.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 264.76$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 207.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 201.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 79c | 99.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 38c | 90.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 82.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 72c | 80.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 78.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 74.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 54c | 74.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 78c | 68.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 74c | 65.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 34c | 64.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 43c | 64.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…0d7cbacked Yes | 72c | 56.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 55.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 71c | 55.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 52.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 40c | 50.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 48c | 49.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 60c | 46.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 67c | 43.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 41.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 40c | 37.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 67c | 37.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 53c | 36.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 34.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 70c | 27.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 50c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 72c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…4cf0backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 59c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…9fc2backed Yes | 56c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5463…71d1backed No | 75c | 18.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 77c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked No | 68c | 16.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 14.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…de3abacked Yes | 77c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.