Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Oxford United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaadf0b1ddeb6158b830a5d5fd48a67449a368a4f755ddb2ffcbd38d39fd04d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 32c | 7,702$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 2,150$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.43 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 68c | 2,095$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.29 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 73c | 1,319$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.87 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 68c | 1,105$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.22 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 661.9$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 592.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 314.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 27c | 215.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 26c | 211.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 187.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed No | 72c | 179$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 177.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 121.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 116.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 21c | 96.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 31c | 95.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 77c | 55.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 146 | 58.9%86 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 75c | 43.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 27c | 39.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 157 | 38.9%61 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…f5b9backed No | 73c | 33.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b2…dcc5backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 72c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed No | 74c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…9c63backed No | 73c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Oxford United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.