Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaea3ac841f8c53c2a09b7ee9143138c1f2166c458e8b205f1be23e531612b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 521.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 456.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 319.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 274.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 13c | 207.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 203.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 7c | 191.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 9c | 182.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 180.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 154.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 10c | 142.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 14c | 109.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 12c | 94.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 94.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 13c | 88.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 13c | 83.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked No | 73c | 42.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 15.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.