Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91a8141e402243cc6a850a04d117531dc5290e5eaf2b0c7bea86a6d7ce4fa888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 34c | 782.64$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.66 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 608.79$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 345.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 312.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 301.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 27c | 267.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.48 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 75c | 256.12$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 232.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 14c | 217.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 26c | 194.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 187.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 33c | 182.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.51 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 175$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 26c | 128.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 115.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 113.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 14c | 111.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 111.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 110.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 101.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 32c | 94.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 66c | 90.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 89.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 83.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 81.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 77.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 48c | 74.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 74.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 72.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 56c | 71.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 72c | 69.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 24c | 69.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 15c | 68.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 60.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 59c | 60.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 47.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 45.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 32c | 44.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 26c | 40.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 67c | 40.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 39.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 77c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 38.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 67c | 37.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 36.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 34.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed Yes | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 33.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 33.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 31.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 28.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 27.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 77c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 16.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 16.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.