Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaebe72c87c82557fe7298eff4fa56cce962bb9a4355b0e52407e9a8603f6f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,961 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 2,408$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 1,540$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 78c | 1,151$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.18 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 72c | 969.25$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.44 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 963.28$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.39 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 20c | 784$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 17c | 627.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 12c | 435$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 12c | 434.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +99%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 42c | 399.84$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.92 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 32c | 345.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 298.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…c444backed Under | 23c | 292.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ac…ef3bbacked Over | 77c | 292.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 269.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 226$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 18c | 218.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…258ebacked Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 199.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 30c | 168.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…775fbacked Over | 58c | 132.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 56c | 119.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 57c | 102.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 19c | 93.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 75c | 68.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 49c | 62.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 36c | 56.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 52c | 47.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 68c | 43.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…2357backed Over | 66c | 40.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 67c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 73c | 34.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 33c | 31.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…86c1backed Over | 76c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Over | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.