Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a66ab2936d16c80b44786b2cf0f4ee8be285be18c26869310214a3111e4c113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,607 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 1,053$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 860.12$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 59c | 592.37$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Yes | 61c | 494.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 457.05$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.04 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 39c | 440.11$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 53c | 322.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Yes | 40c | 312.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 41c | 294.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 67c | 270.67$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 60c | 165.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked No | 59c | 135.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…cfc3backed Yes | 61c | 114.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Yes | 36c | 113.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 113.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 52c | 96.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 60.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 58.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Yes | 31c | 43.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 33c | 36.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Yes | 43c | 34.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Yes | 60c | 26.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 47c | 23.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.