Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d0e072fd753b04fa5685e2bd4de096a01411782e5b32d878589e56f6ffb9754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,068 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 60c | 11,061$6,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,636.31 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 10,917$5,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,266.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.78 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 3,104$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.32 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…7d01backed Under | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 10c | 2,222$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ff…d7afbacked Over | 42c | 1,416$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 40c | 835$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 777.37$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.28 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 682.66$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Under | 39c | 576.92$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 55c | 399.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -7.1wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 60c | 375$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 40c | 297.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 258.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 222.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Over | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 39c | 195$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 60c | 182.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 61c | 164.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 129.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Under | 39c | 119.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 39c | 110.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 49c | 99.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 40c | 99.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 22c | 97.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 31c | 96.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 47c | 93.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 55c | 91.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 39c | 79.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Over | 39c | 71.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 40c | 69.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Under | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 63.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 58.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 40c | 53.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 39c | 47.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Over | 60c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 60c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 54c | 32.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Under | 40c | 31.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Under | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 58c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Under | 45c | 24.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 54c | 19.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Over | 61c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.