Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Dandelions - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab097702bd82f280f15a40c9135329ab6760c117837e06d9140bc21a10224145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Dandelions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a8c…1991backed Dandelions | 3c | 2,088$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 994.92$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.64 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Dandelions | 7c | 956.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Dandelions | 8c | 882.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…9c8abacked Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 791.99$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.99 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Dandelions | 40c | 750.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Dandelions | 26c | 689.6$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.95 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Dandelions | 35c | 496.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 451.34$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.61 | 2,834 | 43.6%1,236 W · 1,598 L | -39.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Dandelions | 36c | 400$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Dandelions | 48c | 358.29$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…bf58backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 326.3$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Dandelions | 5c | 261.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 225$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 210.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Dandelions | 48c | 200.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Dandelions | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed Dandelions | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 167.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Dandelions | 49c | 153.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 129.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 1,461 | 48.5%709 W · 752 L | +28.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Dandelions | 30c | 115.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Dandelions | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 103.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed03…1caabacked Dandelions | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Dandelions | 43c | 95.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615d…bd5bbacked Dandelions | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Dandelions | 36c | 85.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Dandelions | 36c | 80.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Dandelions | 30c | 77.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Dandelions | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…1323backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 54.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Dandelions | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 49.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Dandelions | 28c | 44.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…bd66backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Dandelions | 43c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…89adbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…7c42backed Dandelions | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1b00backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…a94abacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Dandelions - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Dandelions (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Dandelions - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Dandelions (+1.5)Ilbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.