CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1819849d60035b079e5e31a82dd374b88f472d588ea5b6919e38178f4f8af2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Team Falcons | 68c | 33,989$23,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,714.66 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 10,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 7,980$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.8 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 6,249$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Team Falcons | 68c | 4,055$2,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.68 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Falcons | 70c | 3,607$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.89 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 3,314$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.32 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 1,233$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,042$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.02 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 635$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.46 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 523.53$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…7cacbacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 407.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 362.9$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…6caebacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 332.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 305.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 292.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Team Falcons | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 166 | 49.4%82 W · 84 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 225$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 183$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Team Falcons | 76c | 182.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 182.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed Team Falcons | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Team Falcons | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Team Falcons | 69c | 69.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…6a20backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 68.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Team Falcons | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Falcons | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.