Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab3380a012f38be8da02eb9c98934b99f9d9c382a64866135c608c4e9a1eaec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,025$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.09 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 80c | 624.7$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 317.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed No | 77c | 300$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 243.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 42c | 180.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 60c | 165.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 20c | 146.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 126.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 124.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 9c | 121.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 17c | 116.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 13c | 112.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 13c | 109.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 10c | 107.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 13c | 105.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 97.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 14c | 92.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 80c | 76.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 74.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 59c | 61.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 59.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 54.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 47c | 53.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 51.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 22c | 50.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 41.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 26c | 40.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 45c | 27.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 65c | 27.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 71c | 27.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 62c | 18.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 17.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 15.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.