Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82bae3165e8a6d361bf9e01a1e2c5893fe4b1d80f7edb3a06571f0015fa824af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 58c | 772.08$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.53 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 76c | 570.32$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 10c | 229.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 53c | 219.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 170$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 166.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.89 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 61c | 135.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 132.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 132.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 32c | 127.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 126.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 122.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 50c | 111$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 103.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 15c | 99.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 24c | 97.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 96.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 83.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 79.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 76.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 79c | 75.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 67.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 66.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 63c | 63.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 48c | 56.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 45c | 53.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 61c | 52.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 65c | 50.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 46.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 44.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 70c | 42.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 42.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 41.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 46c | 40.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 59c | 39.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…2199backed Yes | 39c | 35.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 32.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 35c | 32.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 36c | 32.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…4cebbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 67c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…dfc0backed Yes | 58c | 27.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…3291backed Yes | 39c | 25.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…58babacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 69c | 23.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 60c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 17.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.