CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab38aa972e17287eec6027b255b7c4c211c8eddb6dee7863c065c2a37cf6ed1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Astralis | 34c | 43,949$14,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,848.25 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 42,185$27,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,664.42 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 29,354$19,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,936.81 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Astralis | 39c | 17,151$6,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,717.48 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Astralis | 34c | 8,824$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Astralis | 33c | 8,385$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,808.35 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Astralis | 33c | 8,189$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.49 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Aurora Gaming | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis | 47c | 4,533$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.64 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora Gaming | 67c | 4,201$2,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.72 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 3,282$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.66 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…7cacbacked Astralis | 34c | 2,220$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.95 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 2,000$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis | 44c | 1,911$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.79 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 1,449$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.02 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…1a4ebacked Aurora Gaming | 67c | 1,160$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -9.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 40c | 900$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.91 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Aurora Gaming | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 684$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.04 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 603.61$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Aurora Gaming | 59c | 595.28$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.28 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Astralis | 38c | 553.12$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.65 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Astralis | 39c | 506.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fa…2afebacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 487.34$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Astralis | 41c | 453.52$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed Astralis | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 368.52$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.87 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Astralis | 33c | 349.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 315.37$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Astralis | 35c | 242.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…70c3backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 235.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 230.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Astralis | 67c | 224.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Astralis | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Aurora Gaming | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ec…18f4backed Astralis | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Astralis | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 199.76$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…bda7backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 138.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 106.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Astralis | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 93.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked Astralis | 61c | 78.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -7.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Aurora Gaming | 52c | 68.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Aurora Gaming | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 194 | 23.7%46 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 51.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astralis | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Astralis | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Aurora Gaming | 59c | 47.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Astralis | 34c | 46.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 43.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…22dabacked Astralis | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Astralis | 47c | 38.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6c…1900backed Astralis | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked Astralis | 47c | 28.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…f5c4backed Aurora Gaming | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Astralis | 59c | 23.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 21.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.