Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4ee1e3c7063d768e3880d065cf85e9a3a24011744a335c3c873f9548a09232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa213…6907backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 4ikibamboni | 80c | 801.81$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 4ikibamboni | 78c | 526$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 499.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…6bfbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 201.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nemiga Gaming | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 68c | 186.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni | 71c | 180.48$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 11c | 177.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed 4ikibamboni | 69c | 162$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked 4ikibamboni | 66c | 151.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Nemiga Gaming | 14c | 149.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 148.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…19f8backed 4ikibamboni | 69c | 143.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked 4ikibamboni | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 82.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 74.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked 4ikibamboni | 68c | 72.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…5154backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…e128backed 4ikibamboni | 69c | 57.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked 4ikibamboni | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…2a5abacked Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 49.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…cc42backed 4ikibamboni | 62c | 47.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 44.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed 4ikibamboni | 74c | 44.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked 4ikibamboni | 74c | 44.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked 4ikibamboni | 71c | 36.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed 4ikibamboni | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed 4ikibamboni | 64c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.