NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Hawks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5a38a9ae61bc9a9c874119ed78385c24ecc7c305fc114012044bf38ca7d7c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Kings, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Kings | 68c | 2,391$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.93 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hawks | 32c | 1,883$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.91 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Hawks | 8c | 1,750$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Hawks | 8c | 1,277$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Kings | 76c | 1,030$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hawks | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Kings | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…681abacked Hawks | 23c | 996.55$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.21 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Hawks | 25c | 833.03$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…3982backed Hawks | 30c | 817.84$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.35 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2dab…c3adbacked Hawks | 32c | 805.37$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…fb79backed Hawks | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Hawks | 12c | 770.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Hawks | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…e61abacked Kings | 78c | 608.8$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Kings | 69c | 507.25$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.25 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Hawks | 18c | 497.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…446cbacked Hawks | 31c | 441.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Kings | 68c | 440.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -62%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Kings | 68c | 354.41$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Hawks | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Kings | 67c | 278.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Kings | 70c | 219.42$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4b…f1e6backed Kings | 76c | 205.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Hawks | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Kings | 70c | 168$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Hawks | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kings | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Kings | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…7214backed Hawks | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Hawks | 32c | 131.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Hawks | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Hawks | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Hawks | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Hawks | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…6dfdbacked Hawks | 17c | 68.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 163 | 25.2%41 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…2be3backed Kings | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Hawks | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Hawks | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…770cbacked Hawks | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…011bbacked Kings | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Kings | 65c | 52.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…2797backed Hawks | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…413fbacked Hawks | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Hawks | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…e696backed Kings | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Kings | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…7ef8backed Kings | 70c | 18.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.