Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab63fd8879ac7f2a650c8e16ab14b095ce87f357688249c3f4ccc7d6d1daf7a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8371…947fbacked No | 15c | 1,506$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 43c | 1,061$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.28 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 23c | 631.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 77c | 551.51$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 454.04$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 418.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 374.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.79 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 326.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 297.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 270$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 268.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 5c | 231.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 223.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 33c | 194.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 17c | 183.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 26c | 156.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed No | 77c | 155.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 145.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed No | 10c | 115.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 106.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 106.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 80c | 101.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 76c | 97.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 58c | 96.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 93.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 93.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 61c | 89.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 67c | 83.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 78.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…6cc9backed Yes | 75c | 71.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…af23backed No | 75c | 71.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 43c | 66.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecb…e234backed No | 76c | 64.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 59.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 34c | 57.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 34c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 47.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 75c | 46.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed No | 52c | 45.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 45.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 58c | 44.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 40.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 39.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 56c | 36.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 63c | 35.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 46c | 35.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 56c | 33.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 38c | 33.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 80c | 30.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 70c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 80c | 25.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 78c | 25.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…9cfcbacked No | 74c | 19.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 69c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 75c | 17.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 79c | 16.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 15.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 15.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 15.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 79c | 13.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.