Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab667f3e5babebf5551887b9774c02c4c53eefe1b8d55274f5e9fce41b5faa26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astini+5of Astini+5, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,753 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Astini+5 | 60c | 1,197$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.6 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Lynx | 46c | 866.53$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.89 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Lynx | 37c | 800$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Astini+5 | 68c | 613.34$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Astini+5 | 44c | 526.2$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.2 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Team Lynx | 39c | 409$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.51 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 33c | 313.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…fe21backed Team Lynx | 8c | 222.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Astini+5 | 34c | 196.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Astini+5 | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Lynx | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 36c | 71.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Astini+5 | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Astini+5 | 54c | 69.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Team Lynx | 54c | 66.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 44c | 64.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Team Lynx | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Team Lynx | 32c | 58.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Lynx | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Team Lynx | 43c | 51.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Team Lynx | 46c | 49.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Lynx | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Astini+5 | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…30debacked Astini+5 | 52c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Astini+5 | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group ATeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Game Handicap: Astini+5 (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)Team Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.