Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08bb8fada0222255986b59d5b93bb02687948ec1e141b99a8ebcabbe156b82a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Astini+5, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Lynx | 53c | 3,260$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.9 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Astini+5 | 51c | 851.66$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.85 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Astini+5 | 26c | 776.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Astini+5 | 48c | 700$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.89 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 37c | 616.95$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.31 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Astini+5 | 70c | 570.88$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.98 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx | 49c | 557.08$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.11 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Team Lynx | 60c | 479.96$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.09 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Astini+5 | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Team Lynx | 53c | 331.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Astini+5 | 55c | 199.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 45c | 147.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Astini+5 | 57c | 135.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Astini+5 | 36c | 115.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 68c | 100.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Astini+5 | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Astini+5 | 44c | 91.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Astini+5 | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Astini+5 | 66c | 38.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 41c | 36.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Team Lynx | 40c | 30.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Team Lynx | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Team Lynx | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Team Lynx | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team Lynx | 53c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Team Lynx | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Astini+5 | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group ATeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerAstini+5 won
- Game Handicap: Astini+5 (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)Team Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.