South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6845cb0755de72dbf7c2e6fdbfb057c1da4595802fda81280a79c7e84e767c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 18c | 1,557$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.43 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 1,540$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.03 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 715.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Under | 80c | 220$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 19c | 213.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…2c59backed Over | 20c | 164.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 20c | 116.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 18c | 108.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 80c | 89.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 16c | 80.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 77c | 27.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)CA Rosario Central won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)CA Rosario Central won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.