MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6a987fddc79d836f5eb658ae10df87ba8df0543b7b6b8c1144e4540fae4c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 2,269$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.21 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 2,103$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 394.56$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 393.21$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 283$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…8d6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 273.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…ddd3backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 272.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 256$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 199.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 187.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 164.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…a62dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 70.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 63.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 59.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 55.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 53.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…24a0backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 50.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 49.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 48.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 44.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 43.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 40.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 39.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 35.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 29.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 24.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 24.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf93c…475ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 22.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 21.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.