South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb0e09db3bb27a2822a42c9ebf2b4935bbdc6b7d9377676cfa59ebf66972c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 48c | 4,940$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.78 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 59c | 2,905$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.25 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,188$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.93 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 1,465$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.66 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 1,035$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.61 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 29c | 492.54$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.79 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Under | 70c | 417.58$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 52c | 254.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 68c | 191.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Over | 48c | 186.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 112.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 29c | 103$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 61.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 30c | 60.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 30c | 49.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 70c | 47.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Under | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 54c | 32.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 46c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 52c | 22.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…bbecbacked Under | 70c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: AA Argentinos Juniors O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.