South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe20171965d2fac4182f40e4bf8828797443a6d91c9c4941d3dd065be56a59fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d94…9357backed Under | 8c | 1,089$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Over | 37c | 956.46$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.79 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 5c | 786$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.16 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 45c | 622.03$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.13 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 417.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 44c | 371.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Over | 44c | 357.13$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 24c | 263.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 247.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 12c | 215.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 37c | 186.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…3b3fbacked Under | 58c | 173.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Over | 41c | 169.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 25c | 128$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 46c | 127.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 63c | 116.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under | 59c | 103.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 62.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Over | 36c | 52.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 56c | 52.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 42.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 61c | 37.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 30c | 37.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 24.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 65c | 22.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 69c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: AA Argentinos Juniors O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.