Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Blake Ellis vs Stefano Travaglia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb81a72e87564d390cf00dcafe87617b719dd6de73eea9c33679710e34c6262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Travagliaof Ellis, Travaglia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Travaglia | 51c | 831.46$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.02 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…a8bbbacked Ellis | 47c | 625.75$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ellis | 35c | 514.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.75 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Ellis | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Travaglia | 62c | 350$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Travaglia | 53c | 210$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Travaglia | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Ellis | 66c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Ellis | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Travaglia | 67c | 145.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Travaglia | 59c | 134$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Ellis | 48c | 125.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Travaglia | 56c | 88.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Travaglia | 50c | 82.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Travaglia | 56c | 79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Ellis | 48c | 78.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Ellis | 24c | 74.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Travaglia | 52c | 73.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Ellis | 33c | 62.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Travaglia | 54c | 55.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Travaglia | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ellis | 43c | 52.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…1a88backed Ellis | 47c | 52.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Travaglia | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Ellis | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…c545backed Travaglia | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Travaglia | 61c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc598…b4acbacked Ellis | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Ellis | 46c | 25.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.