Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabbd708c49f30177f8dc2a60a6042206d0a90fc307d8543c3be98f3f87d609ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 0c | 4,865$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 370.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 28c | 229.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…655fbacked No | 80c | 187.4$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 184.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 32c | 169.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 166.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 130$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 78c | 128.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 41c | 116.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 17c | 109.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 108.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 20c | 107.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 64c | 99.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 68c | 93.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 92.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 82.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 72.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 28c | 70.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 68.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 57.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 53c | 56.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 54.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5479…4bfabacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +256%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…84bebacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +95%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…5d47backed No | 24c | 42.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d66…cba7backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 34.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…6909backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…2affbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 44c | 27.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 64c | 24.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 24.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 23.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 78c | 22.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 15.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…0b0cbacked No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.