Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcc9dd548d06ec36e7d91ef85cce543e9c80794cf2c2e9c14f814570b2c557dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9548…655fbacked Yes | 32c | 538.08$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 295.15$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 181.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 158.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 17c | 146.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 31c | 134.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 102.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 27c | 102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 90.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 23c | 87.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 84.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 83.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 22c | 74.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 72.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 64.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 34c | 57.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 71c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 48.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 43.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…f336backed Yes | 30c | 41.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 79c | 34.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…b5c0backed No | 67c | 34.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 25.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 20.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 64c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8010backed No | 69c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 77c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…3537backed No | 73c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.