Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State Cardinals: O/U 141.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabbfdf7d986f44d97647524580e6020bfbb29c122b38dec8d3be1f54a4d3075a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 52c | 61,377$31,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,639.35 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,750 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Under | 49c | 16,179$7,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,251.41 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 15,510$7,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,190.27 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.99 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Under | 48c | 3,923$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.68 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 3,869$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.03 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.49 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 46c | 1,898$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.01 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 49c | 506.07$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.67 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 375.04$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 49c | 349.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.49 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 197$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Under | 46c | 187.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 52c | 65.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 49c | 48.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 52c | 24.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Over | 52c | 19.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…254dbacked Under | 78c | 17.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State Cardinals: O/U 141.5this page
- Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State CardinalsBuffalo Bulls won
- Spread: Buffalo Bulls (-1.5)Buffalo Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.