CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs HOTU (BO3) - Myskill Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabd8bd0aed551cf307573e40ff3cffb6472c060f78fa8a5292800b7d80422b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof WATERMELON, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…3887backed WATERMELON | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked HOTU | 60c | 1,002$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.93 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…f6a8backed WATERMELON | 6c | 551.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed HOTU | 72c | 449.97$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked HOTU | 73c | 431.88$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 87 | 70.1%61 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed WATERMELON | 27c | 243.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed HOTU | 63c | 239.87$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed WATERMELON | 47c | 212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed WATERMELON | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed HOTU | 53c | 157.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 218 | 67%146 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked WATERMELON | 31c | 149.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c161backed WATERMELON | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked WATERMELON | 38c | 99.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed WATERMELON | 61c | 97.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed HOTU | 60c | 82.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 193 | 42%81 W · 112 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed WATERMELON | 28c | 82.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked HOTU | 79c | 74.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked WATERMELON | 28c | 53.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked HOTU | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked HOTU | 52c | 49.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…1c75backed HOTU | 73c | 48.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked WATERMELON | 60c | 33.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked WATERMELON | 36c | 30.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed HOTU | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed HOTU | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed WATERMELON | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…eb3abacked HOTU | 60c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbb…2948backed HOTU | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 170 | 70%119 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed WATERMELON | 54c | 19.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs HOTU (BO3) - Myskill Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs HOTU - Map 1 WinnerWATERMELON won
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs WATERMELON (+1.5)WATERMELON won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.