Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac015191eab979e9f3c0466b88e02a1852b9518fb02e140df6c68ec7ae40f235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 9,956$5,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300.82 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 45c | 7,690$3,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,460.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 58c | 5,000$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113.91 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 4,294$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.6 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 57c | 3,210$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.11 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Under | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 1,684$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.48 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 1,009$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.97 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 42c | 978.67$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Under | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 44c | 439$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Over | 56c | 296.03$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 57c | 280$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 56c | 261.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 44c | 234.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 62c | 180$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 55c | 141$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 135.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 57c | 109.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 16c | 95.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 45c | 88.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 16c | 83.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 42c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6781…2ff5backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 52.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Over | 56c | 33.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 73c | 32.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 43c | 31.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 43c | 29.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8ccdbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.