MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac1bcce1972d36d2cb62960fab988d81f3a5f4bd048787f08e414df29be3af3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 50c | 499$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 43c | 495.59$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 50c | 480$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…da36backed Yes | 59c | 391.09$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +103%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 42c | 301.91$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 61c | 281.69$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 44c | 202.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 61c | 172$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Yes | 34c | 124$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Yes | 63c | 82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 38c | 81.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed Yes | 60c | 76.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yes | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 47c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed No | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed Yes | 54c | 38.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Yes | 62c | 30.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 42c | 29.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…2896backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.