MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bffab42f52d58968f1d5f4e0a3f115b2476abe6febfab86e9958d9ee7e3e26a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 7,120$3,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,699.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 5,973$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 1,662$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,462$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.1 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee2…e88fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 1,276$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.31 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.22 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 933.46$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 810.51$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.52 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…58cebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 483.75$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.53 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 369.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.47 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 299.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 233.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 226$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 224.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 8c | 208$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 192$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 155$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 129.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 127.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 98.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 83.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 68.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 65.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 36.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…b313backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 33.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 27.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 23.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.