NHL · resolved market
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Ak Bars Kazan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5600551fcda56081e0f02632b09661114de792892951e8141fedd60f4852da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Ak Bars Kazan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 59c | 1,162$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 930$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.9 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 43c | 913.65$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.87 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Ak Bars Kazan | 5c | 622.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Ak Bars Kazan | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 65c | 500$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.34 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Ak Bars Kazan | 41c | 496.47$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ak Bars Kazan | 32c | 303.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f7…e966backed Ak Bars Kazan | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 58c | 171.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 170.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Ak Bars Kazan | 43c | 157.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x574d…1227backed Ak Bars Kazan | 42c | 152.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 124.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 25c | 118.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…5e62backed Ak Bars Kazan | 42c | 114.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2f…21fabacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 61c | 109.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…5117backed Ak Bars Kazan | 43c | 97.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…59d1backed Ak Bars Kazan | 42c | 93.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…c410backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 59c | 83.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 60c | 81.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30b…29e5backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 59c | 70.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…d3c9backed Ak Bars Kazan | 32c | 52.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ak Bars Kazan | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 60c | 49.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 56c | 49.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Ak Bars Kazan | 39c | 43.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681f…ca51backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 59c | 43.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…30aebacked Ak Bars Kazan | 33c | 40.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 39.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…3f36backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…e711backed Ak Bars Kazan | 42c | 33.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d39…1ca7backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 24.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8878…5e41backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.