Tennis · resolved market
Tigre: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Juan Manuel La Serna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac9f114d746f6a286ad4bdb8bacc6c934a68076fc06582e8df54d01f06cdd468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sernaof Meza, Serna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x972b…78babacked Meza | 54c | 1,412$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.73 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Serna | 69c | 1,396$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.75 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Meza | 39c | 1,366$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Meza | 23c | 968.25$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Meza | 32c | 926.86$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.84 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Meza | 48c | 831.19$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.34 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Serna | 25c | 715.26$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.08 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Serna | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.29 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…b053backed Meza | 30c | 700$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Serna | 54c | 566$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.34 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Serna | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Meza | 64c | 246.96$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Serna | 18c | 231.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…6b67backed Serna | 23c | 219.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Serna | 14c | 207.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.86 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Serna | 49c | 205.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Serna | 23c | 162.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Serna | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Serna | 36c | 156$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…f11bbacked Meza | 75c | 132.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…6405backed Serna | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Meza | 79c | 126.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Meza | 80c | 125.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Serna | 52c | 124.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Meza | 74c | 121.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Serna | 54c | 112.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Meza | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Serna | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Serna | 22c | 90.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Meza | 66c | 75.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 54.5%128 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Meza | 77c | 54.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Serna | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Serna | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Meza | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Meza | 77c | 22.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…8ef9backed Meza | 79c | 14.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.