Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca9b995334b88d2c72163f2fefb2511ba66adde3175674ea54a2e5fdfb2e34e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLA Bruinsof Oregon Ducks, UCLA Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Oregon Ducks | 12c | 5,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Oregon Ducks | 19c | 1,490$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.1 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Oregon Ducks | 9c | 1,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Oregon Ducks | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 7%8 W · 107 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon Ducks | 15c | 568.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…69d0backed Oregon Ducks | 17c | 563.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Oregon Ducks | 12c | 319.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed UCLA Bruins | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Oregon Ducks | 8c | 306.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Oregon Ducks | 19c | 298$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oregon Ducks | 18c | 193.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Oregon Ducks | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Oregon Ducks | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Oregon Ducks | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Oregon Ducks | 17c | 88.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Oregon Ducks | 14c | 79.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon Ducks | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…5141backed Oregon Ducks | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked UCLA Bruins | 80c | 52.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Oregon Ducks | 20c | 52.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.