UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb16f67fbb3e7ad477fa5992a18727f144e2ac22a36621b802dcc34e2a04f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 47c | 14,774$7,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,765.85 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 52c | 6,604$3,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,434.16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Under | 53c | 5,557$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136d…62ffbacked Under | 53c | 915.09$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Under | 53c | 904.55$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.37 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 48c | 623.83$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…088dbacked Under | 52c | 383.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 51c | 316.45$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 234$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…b2a1backed Under | 53c | 218.87$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…dbc6backed Under | 51c | 208.57$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Over | 49c | 191.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…9153backed Under | 53c | 189.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 51c | 157.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 51c | 135.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Under | 53c | 117.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 53c | 83.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 38c | 77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +189%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 62c | 77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…39eabacked Under | 51c | 67.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 53c | 63.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked Over | 49c | 50.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…4ac9backed Over | 50c | 35.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…2c71backed Under | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…9851backed Under | 51c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)Tofiq Musayev won
- Will Ignacio Bahamondes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Tofiq Musayev win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.