South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacd26d0fc18188fa71d7be133bf05c2d0c63ce004fc1d37ff20a707129034977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 62c | 3,464$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.75 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 2,241$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.78 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 1,753$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.22 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 71c | 1,128$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.63 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 945.58$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 30c | 943.47$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.04 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 74c | 669.17$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 75c | 597.52$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 75c | 543.2$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 75c | 512.69$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.22 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 381.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Over | 27c | 354.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 46c | 329.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 22c | 300.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…258ebacked Over | 29c | 212.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…1bc0backed Under | 70c | 179.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…2f12backed Under | 73c | 175.82$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 46c | 158.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 75c | 147.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 32c | 119.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 71c | 118.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 30c | 92.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 46c | 85.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 79.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 71c | 77.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 27c | 69.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 65c | 60.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 46c | 51.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 29c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…0559backed Under | 62c | 48.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a4…0182backed Under | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…72d2backed Over | 29c | 39.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Under | 59c | 30.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 73c | 23.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 55c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 72c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Recoleta FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Recoleta FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.