South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd6cbf35e25a04a23c28f531ac7c85ee0f783697659674b293de8cb52e51d35d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Recoleta FCof Santos FC, Recoleta FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Recoleta FC | 43c | 1,914$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.94 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Santos FC | 75c | 1,539$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.38 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Recoleta FC | 25c | 1,384$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Santos FC | 69c | 1,050$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.38 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Recoleta FC | 29c | 1,029$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.75 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Santos FC | 33c | 972.31$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.41 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Santos FC | 62c | 485.46$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.01 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Santos FC | 69c | 423.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Recoleta FC | 31c | 402.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.4 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db4…bee1backed Santos FC | 48c | 294.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Santos FC | 51c | 274.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed Santos FC | 56c | 216.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Santos FC | 52c | 187.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Recoleta FC | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Santos FC | 71c | 179.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Santos FC | 57c | 156.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Santos FC | 59c | 123.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Santos FC | 67c | 120.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…d305backed Santos FC | 57c | 116.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Recoleta FC | 40c | 96.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Recoleta FC | 31c | 87.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Recoleta FC | 30c | 87.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Santos FC | 56c | 84.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…8b2fbacked Santos FC | 73c | 78.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Recoleta FC | 39c | 71.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Santos FC | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Recoleta FC | 26c | 64.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Recoleta FC | 41c | 58.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Recoleta FC | 28c | 55.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0fb1backed Santos FC | 56c | 47.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Santos FC | 70c | 42.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa443…aaf3backed Santos FC | 72c | 31.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Recoleta FC | 49c | 29.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed Santos FC | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…8845backed Santos FC | 72c | 28.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Santos FC | 70c | 28.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Santos FC | 56c | 27.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…f4babacked Santos FC | 54c | 27.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f5…d878backed Santos FC | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…fb30backed Santos FC | 68c | 25.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Santos FC | 57c | 24.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)this page
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Recoleta FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.