South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cb452555888a4bce299590fa8215f46374a4eaa9d09a62a63a2fbddea3a54ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 48c | 4,914$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.71 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 52c | 4,239$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.85 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 42c | 1,567$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.94 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Under | 35c | 1,387$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 63c | 1,228$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.63 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…b5e6backed Over | 75c | 916.99$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 857.8$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.72 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 830.56$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.16 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 667.84$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.67 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 45c | 640.62$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.47 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 573.56$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.85 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 60c | 566.1$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 60c | 488$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 452.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.34 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 37c | 210.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…c137backed Under | 34c | 139.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 59c | 117.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 33c | 113.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 69c | 113.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 22c | 106.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed Over | 72c | 103.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…6573backed Over | 70c | 88.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 63c | 84.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Over | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…1532backed Over | 74c | 67.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Over | 51c | 48.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 41c | 47.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 63c | 30.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…9f48backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedef…a67ebacked Over | 58c | 29.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 68c | 28.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…f4babacked Over | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Recoleta FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Recoleta FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.