MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad12de72cddd04255c4ed030916ca8a4833eb6e3929794cf043151f9af366f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 44c | 853.31$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.46 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 632.61$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 417.92$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 405.98$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 324.25$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 323.45$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 318$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.83 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 50c | 173.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 28c | 164.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 23c | 125.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 56c | 116.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 44c | 96.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 55c | 87.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 58c | 84.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 65c | 76.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 48c | 72.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 71.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 36c | 61.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 46c | 53.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…2bcbbacked Under | 51c | 52.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 48c | 46.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 56c | 36.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 62c | 33.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 25.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 46c | 25.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 24.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 59c | 19.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 58c | 18.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.