MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe9c4f7b31337bad2881cbbbf0d3beaf68d7b864d641f34930f20e9267f8541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 54c | 244.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 223$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 72c | 165.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Houston Astros | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 147.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Houston Astros | 68c | 44.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 43.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…e18ebacked Houston Astros | 72c | 37.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 32.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Boston Red Sox | 67c | 31.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Houston Astros | 43c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…d710backed Houston Astros | 73c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.