Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad1dd521e658a5b934c68916dc8cc7480b20434b0686893536b8f3e4c5e43919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,797 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 65c | 3,638$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 2,128$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.55 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Under | 23c | 799.96$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 39c | 635.49$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.62 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 38c | 419.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 63c | 372.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.14 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 36c | 145.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 74c | 143.26$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Under | 35c | 140.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 35c | 130.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Over | 66c | 112$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 58c | 102.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 96.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 38c | 95.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7683…d8e3backed Under | 37c | 89.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 84.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 67c | 70.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 43c | 69.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 35c | 62.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 63c | 59.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…8d82backed Over | 62c | 49.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 34c | 49.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 36c | 39.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 70c | 34.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 34c | 33.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 57c | 24.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 64c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.