Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327c07e2013b59affada588cd8f1bb5af99b676b3f4c32138c8ac574a57c28b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,013 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 0c | 29,404$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 58c | 10,937$6,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,342.61 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 42c | 5,467$2,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,172.49 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 4,569$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.8 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 63c | 2,119$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.14 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 1,201$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.5 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Under | 59c | 1,020$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 58c | 499.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Over | 77c | 468.68$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 41c | 444$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.96 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 58c | 423.27$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.41 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked Over | 76c | 328.08$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 322$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…dc56backed Under | 19c | 263.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 249$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 43c | 232.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 231.63$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 196.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 41c | 175$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 41c | 131.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 42c | 118.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 42c | 104.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 45c | 86.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 42c | 75.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Under | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 42c | 54.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 69c | 51.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 50.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 42c | 48.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 42c | 44.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 29.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 58c | 25.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.